Do Firms Smooth the Seasonal in Production in a Boom? Theory and Evidence

Using disaggregated production data we show that the size of seasonal cycles changes significantly over the course of the business cycle. In particular, during periods of high economy-wide activity, some industries smooth seasonal fluctuations while others exaggerate them. We interpret this finding using a simple analytical model that describes the conditions under which seasonal and cyclical fluctuations can be separated. Our model implies that seasonal fluctuations can safely be disentangled from cyclical fluctuations only when the marginal cost of production is linear, and the variation in demand and cost satisfy certain (restrictive) conditions. The model also suggests that inventory movements can be used to isolate the role of demand shifts in generating any interaction between seasonal cycles and business cycles. Thus, the empirical analysis involves studying the variation in seasonally unadjusted patterns of production and inventory accumulation over different phases of the business cycle. Our finding that seasonals shrink during booms and that firms carry more inventories into high sales seasons during a boom leads us to conclude that for several industries, marginal cost slopes up at an increasing rate. Conversely, in a couple of industries we find that seasonal swings in production are exaggerated during booms and that inventories are drawn down prior to high sales seasons, suggesting that marginal costs curves flatten as production increases. Overall, we find considerable evidence that there are non-linear interactions between business cycles and seasonal cycles.

Pastures for the pastoral areas

The pastoral areas lie generally outside the zone where cultivated crops are grown. The rainfall is erratic and the basic pastures for sheep and cattle consist of native plants. In some favoured areas however, and in particular situations, sown pasture species are becoming increasingly important

Study of techniques and applications of satellite imagery to small scale mapping

There are no author-identified significant results in this report

Passive noise control strategies for jets exhausting over flat surfaces : an LES study

Unconventional aircraft propulsion configurations have to be considered in the future to address environmental issues, including air traffic noise that is know to affect communities surrounding airports. One approach involves rectangular jets in the vicinity of flat surfaces that are parallel to the jet axis in an attempt to shield the noise, but previous experimental work indicated that there is an increase in the noise generated by these configurations, mainly associated with the effect that the plate trailing edge exerts on the flow. In this work, we use large eddy simulations to investigate the potential of wall deformations at the plate trailing edge to reduce jet noise. We consider a high aspect ratio rectangular nozzle exhausting a jet over a flat surface in different configurations, and estimate the farfield noise using the Ffowcs Williams and Hawkins acoustic analogy. Because of the high aspect ratio of the rectangular nozzle, we approximate the jet as being two-dimensional, and use periodic boundary conditions in the spanwise direction. For the configurations that we considered here, the trailing edge deformations did not seem to affect the noise significantly; an overall sound pressure level in the order of 1-2 dB was observed for some selected cases

Evolution of turbulence and in-plane vortices in the near field flow behind multi-scale planar grids

In this experimental work, we carry out detailed two-dimensional particle image velocimetry investigations for the near field wakes behind a conventional and two multi-scale planar grids, using stitched camera fields of view. Statistical independent measurements are conducted focusing on the first few mesh distances downstream of the grid. It is found that the multiple integral length scales originated from the grids loose their importance on the turbulence development after about three mesh distances downstream, much earlier than the distance where the turbulence becomes homogeneous. The largest eddy size, represented by the integral length scales, does not show clear differences in its growth rate among the three grids after an initial development of three times the largest grid size downstream. Nevertheless, when examining individual vortex behaviours using conditional averaging and filtering processes, clear differences are found. The grids are found to have different decay rates of peak vorticity and projected vortex strengths. Despite these differences, the in-plane vorticity correlation function reveals that the mean vortex shape of all the grids shows a universal near-Gaussian pattern which does not change much as the turbulence decays

Pion structure from improved lattice QCD: form factor and charge radius at low masses

The charge form factor of the pion is calculated in lattice QCD. The non-perturbatively improved Sheikholeslami-Wohlert action is used together with the $\mathcal{O}(a)$ improved vector current. Other choices for the current are examined. The form factor is extracted for pion masses from 970 MeV down to 360 MeV and for momentum transfers $Q^2 \leq 2 \mathrm{GeV}^2$. The mean square charge radius is extracted, compared to previous determinations and its extrapolation to lower masses discussed.Comment: 12 pages REVTeX, 15 figures. Designation of currents clarified. Details concerning extraction of parameters added. Version accepted by Phys. Rev.

A Lattice Study of the Magnetic Moment and the Spin Structure of the Nucleon

Using an approach free from momentum extrapolation, we calculate the nucleon magnetic moment and the fraction of the nucleon spin carried by the quark angular momentum in the quenched lattice QCD approximation. Quarks with three values of lattice masses, 210, 124 and 80 MeV, are formulated on the lattice using the standard Wilson approach. At every mass, 100 gluon configurations on 16^3 x 32 lattice with \beta=6.0 are used for statistical averaging. The results are compared with the previous calculations with momentum extrapolation. The contribution of the disconnected diagrams is studied at the largest quark mass using noise theory technique.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, Talk given at Lattice2001, Berlin, German

Nucleon Axial Form Factor from Lattice QCD

Results for the isovector axial form factors of the proton from a lattice QCD calculation are presented for both point-split and local currents. They are obtained on a quenched $16^{3} \times 24$ lattice at $\beta= 6.0$ with Wilson fermions for a range of quark masses from strange to charm. We determine the finite lattice renormalization for both the local and point-split currents of heavy quarks. Results extrapolated to the chiral limit show that the $q^2$ dependence of the axial form factor agrees reasonably well with experiment. The axial coupling constant $g_A$ calculated for the local and the point-split currents is about 6\% and 12\% smaller than the experimental value respectively.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures (included in part 2), UK/93-0